1887
Review Open Access
Like 0

Abstract

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effective resource allocation to manage the consequences of communicable disease outbreaks, it is useful to be able to rank and prioritise pathogens. This paper reports on a literature review which identifies and evaluates the range of methods used for risk ranking. Searches were performed across biomedical and grey literature databases, supplemented by reference harvesting and citation tracking. Studies were selected using transparent inclusion criteria and underwent quality appraisal using a bespoke checklist based on the AGREE II criteria. Seventeen studies were included in the review, covering five methodologies. A narrative analysis of the selected studies suggests that no single methodology was superior. However, many of the methods shared common components, around which a ‘best-practice’ framework was formulated. This approach is intended to help inform decision makers’ choice of an appropriate risk-ranking study design.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.17.30212
2016-04-28
2024-03-19
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.17.30212
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/21/17/eurosurv-21-30212-6.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.17.30212&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Altizer S, Ostfeld RS, Johnson PT, Kutz S, Harvell CD. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. Science. 2013;341(6145):514-9.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239401  PMID: 23908230 
  2. Lindgren E, Andersson Y, Suk JE, Sudre B, Semenza JC. Public health. Monitoring EU emerging infectious disease risk due to climate change. Science. 2012;336(6080):418-9.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215735  PMID: 22539705 
  3. Gautret P, Botelho-Nevers E, Brouqui P, Parola P. The spread of vaccine-preventable diseases by international travellers: a public-health concern. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2012;18(Suppl 5):77-84.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-0691.2012.03940.x  PMID: 22862565 
  4. Khan K, Arino J, Hu W, Raposo P, Sears J, Calderon F, et al. Spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus via global airline transportation. N Engl J Med. 2009;361(2):212-4.  https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc0904559  PMID: 19564630 
  5. . European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Health inequalities, the financial crisis and infectious disease in Europe. Stockholm: ECDC; 2013. Available from: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/Health_inequalities_financial_crisis.pdf
  6. World Health Organization (WHO). Commission on Social Determinants of Health. Closing the gap in a generation: Health equity through action on the social determinants of health. Final report of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health. Geneva: WHO; 2008. Available from: http://www.who.int/social_determinants/thecommission/finalreport/en/
  7. Suk JE, Semenza JC. Future infectious disease threats to Europe. Am J Public Health. 2011;101(11):2068-79.  https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2011.300181  PMID: 21940915 
  8. Suk JE, Van Cangh T, Beaute J, Bartels C, Tsolova S, Pharris A, et al. The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases. Glob Health Action. 2014;7:25287.
  9. Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA, Storeygard A, Balk D, Gittleman JL, et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature. 2008;451(7181):990-3.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06536  PMID: 18288193 
  10. Karesh WB, Dobson A, Lloyd-Smith JO, Lubroth J, Dixon MA, Bennett M, et al. Ecology of zoonoses: natural and unnatural histories. Lancet. 2012;380(9857):1936-45.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61678-X  PMID: 23200502 
  11. Al-Tawfiq JA, Zumla A, Gautret P, Gray GC, Hui DS, Al-Rabeeah AA, et al. Surveillance for emerging respiratory viruses. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014;14(10):992-1000.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70840-0  PMID: 25189347 
  12. Bogoch II, Creatore MI, Cetron MS, Brownstein JS, Pesik N, Miniota J, et al. Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak. Lancet. 2015;385(9962):29-35.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61828-6  PMID: 25458732 
  13. Rezza G, Nicoletti L, Angelini R, Romi R, Finarelli AC, Panning M, et al. CHIKV study group. Infection with chikungunya virus in Italy: an outbreak in a temperate region. Lancet. 2007;370(9602):1840-6.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61779-6  PMID: 18061059 
  14. Sudre B, Rossi M, Van Bortel W, Danis K, Baka A, Vakalis N, et al. Mapping environmental suitability for malaria transmission, Greece. Emerg Infect Dis. 2013;19(5):784-6.  https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1905.120811  PMID: 23697370 
  15. Randolph SE, Rogers DJ. The arrival, establishment and spread of exotic diseases: patterns and predictions. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2010;8(5):361-71.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro2336  PMID: 20372156 
  16. World Health Organization (WHO). International Health Regulations. Checklist and indicators for monitoring progress in the development of IHR core capacities in States Parties. Geneva: WHO; 2013. Available from: http://www.who.int/ihr/publications/checklist/en/
  17. The European Parliament and of the Council of the European Union. Decision No 1082/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 October 2013 on serious cross-border threats to health and repealing Decision No 2119/98/EC. Offical Journal of the European Union. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 5.11.2013:L 293. Available from: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:293:0001:0015:EN:PDF
  18. Woolhouse M. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2011;366(1573):2045-54.  https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0387  PMID: 21624924 
  19. World Health Organization (WHO). Joint European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and WHO Regional Office for Europe consultation on pandemic and all hazard preparedness. Copenhagen: WHO; 2014.Available from: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/Joint-ECDC-WHO-Europe-Consultation-on-pandemic-and-all-hazard-preparedness-meeting-report.pdf
  20. (BIOHAZ) EPoBH. Scientific Opinion on the development of a risk ranking framework on biological hazards. EFSA Journal. 2012;10(6):2724.
  21. World Health Organization (WHO). Setting priorities in communicable disease surveillance. WHO/CDS/EPR/LYO/2006.3. Geneva: WHO; 2006. Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/69332/1/WHO_CDS_EPR_LYO_2006_3_eng.pdf
  22. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Best practices in ranking emerging infectious disease threats: A literature review. ECDC Technical Report. Stockholm: ECDC; 2015. Available from: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/emerging-infectious-disease-threats-best-practices-ranking.pdf
  23. European Commission. Commission implementing decision of 8 August 2012 amending Decision 2002/253/EC laying down case definitions for reporting communicable diseases to the Community network under Decision No 2119/98/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. Official Journal of the European Union. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 27.9.2012:L 262. Available from: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2012:262:0001:0057:EN:PDF
  24. International Organization for Standardization (ISO). ISO Guide 73:2009. Risk management -- Vocabulary. 15 Nov 2009.Available from: http://www.iso.org/iso/catalogue_detail?csnumber=44651
  25. Booth A. Unpacking your literature search toolbox: on search styles and tactics. Health Info Libr J. 2008;25(4):313-7.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-1842.2008.00825.x  PMID: 19076679 
  26. Bates MJ. The design of browsing and berrypicking techniques for the online search interface. Online Review.1989;13(5):407-24.  https://doi.org/10.1108/eb024320 
  27. Brouwers MC, Kho ME, Browman GP, Burgers JS, Cluzeau F, Feder G, et al. AGREE Next Steps Consortium. AGREE II: advancing guideline development, reporting and evaluation in health care. CMAJ. 2010;182(18):E839-42.  https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.090449  PMID: 20603348 
  28. Ng V, Sargeant JM. A quantitative approach to the prioritization of zoonotic diseases in North America: a health professionals’ perspective. PLoS One. 2013;8(8):e72172.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072172  PMID: 23991057 
  29. Ng V, Sargeant JM. A quantitative and novel approach to the prioritization of zoonotic diseases in North America: a public perspective. PLoS One. 2012;7(11):e48519.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048519  PMID: 23133639 
  30. Ng V, Sargeant JM. A stakeholder-informed approach to the identification of criteria for the prioritization of zoonoses in Canada. PLoS One. 2012;7(1):e29752.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0029752  PMID: 22238648 
  31. Cox R, Revie CW, Sanchez J. The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change. PLoS One. 2012;7(7):e41590.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041590  PMID: 22848536 
  32. Cox R, Sanchez J, Revie CW. Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada. PLoS One. 2013;8(8):e68338.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068338  PMID: 23950868 
  33. Cox R, McIntyre KM, Sanchez J, Setzkorn C, Baylis M, Revie CW. Comparison of the h-Index Scores Among Pathogens Identified as Emerging Hazards in North America. Transbound Emerg Dis. 2016;63(1):79-91.  https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.12221  PMID: 24735045 
  34. McIntyre KM, Hawkes I, Waret-Szkuta A, Morand S, Baylis M. The H-index as a quantitative indicator of the relative impact of human diseases. PLoS One. 2011;6(5):e19558.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0019558  PMID: 21625581 
  35. Balabanova Y, Gilsdorf A, Buda S, Burger R, Eckmanns T, Gärtner B, et al. Communicable diseases prioritized for surveillance and epidemiological research: results of a standardized prioritization procedure in Germany, 2011. PLoS One. 2011;6(10):e25691.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0025691  PMID: 21991334 
  36. Economopoulou A, Kinross P, Domanovic D, Coulombier D. Infectious diseases prioritisation for event-based surveillance at the European Union level for the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Euro Surveill. 2014;19(15):20770.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2014.19.15.20770  PMID: 24762663 
  37. Krause GWorking Group on Prioritization at Robert Koch Institute. How can infectious diseases be prioritized in public health? A standardized prioritization scheme for discussion. EMBO Rep. 2008;9(Suppl 1):S22-7.  https://doi.org/10.1038/embor.2008.76  PMID: 18578019 
  38. World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe. The Dubrovnik pledge on surveillance and prioritization of infectious diseases: report on a WHO meeting, Bucharest, Romania 21-23 November 2002. Copenhagen: WHO; 2003. Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/107469
  39. Cardoen S, Van Huffel X, Berkvens D, Quoilin S, Ducoffre G, Saegerman C, et al. Evidence-based semiquantitative methodology for prioritization of foodborne zoonoses. Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2009;6(9):1083-96.  https://doi.org/10.1089/fpd.2009.0291  PMID: 19715429 
  40. Havelaar AH, van Rosse F, Bucura C, Toetenel MA, Haagsma JA, Kurowicka D, et al. Prioritizing emerging zoonoses in the Netherlands. PLoS One. 2010;5(11):e13965.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013965  PMID: 21085625 
  41. Humblet MF, Vandeputte S, Albert A, Gosset C, Kirschvink N, Haubruge E, et al. Multidisciplinary and evidence-based method for prioritizing diseases of food-producing animals and zoonoses. Emerg Infect Dis. 2012;18(4).  https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1804.111151  PMID: 22469519 
  42. Morgan D, Kirkbride H, Hewitt K, Said B, Walsh AL. Assessing the risk from emerging infections. Epidemiol Infect. 2009;137(11):1521-30.  https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268809990227  PMID: 19538820 
  43. Palmer S, Brown D, Morgan D. Early qualitative risk assessment of the emerging zoonotic potential of animal diseases. BMJ. 2005;331(7527):1256-60.  https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.331.7527.1256  PMID: 16308389 
  44. Horby P, Rushdy A, Graham C, O’Mahony MPHLS Overview of Communicable Diseases Committee. PHLS overview of communicable diseases 1999. Commun Dis Public Health. 2001;4(1):8-17. PMID: 11467030 
  45. Gore SM. Biostatistics and the Medical Research Council. Medical Research Council News. 1987(35):19-20.
  46. NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement. Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement; 2008. Available from: http://www.institute.nhs.uk/quality_and_service_improvement_tools/quality_and_service_improvement_tools/plan_do_study_act.html
  47. Suk JE, Lyall C, Tait J. Mapping the future dynamics of disease transmission: risk analysis in the United Kingdom Foresight Programme on the detection and identification of infectious diseases. Euro Surveill. 2008;13(44):19021.
  48. Heikkila J. A review of risk prioritisation schemes of pathogens, pests and weeds: principles and practices. Agric Food Sci. 2010;2010(20):15-28.
  49. Menrath A, Tomuzia K, Frentzel H, Braeunig J, Appel B. Survey of Systems for Comparative Ranking of Agents that Pose a Bioterroristic Threat. Zoonoses and Public Health. 2014;61(3):157-66.
  50. Viergever RF. A checklist for health research priority setting: nine common themes of good practice. Health Research Policy and Systems. 2010;8(36).
  51. Sibbald SL, Singer PA, Upshur R, Martin DK. Priority setting: what constitutes success? A conceptual framework for successful priority setting. BMC Health Services Research. 2009;9(43).
  52. Suk JE, Van Cangh T, Ciotti M. Enhancing public health preparedness: towards an integrated process. eHealth Int. 2015;21(3):3.
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.17.30212
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error