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Abstract

Based on 2015 abundance of in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
2016-04-14
2017-12-17
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
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