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Abstract

To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3-25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS. .

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181
2015-07-09
2017-10-20
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181
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