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Abstract

We simulated the potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV) following the introduction of a single infectious individual in a generic population, based on epidemiological parameters derived from a human-to-human historical outbreak. Under current available evidence, our analyses suggest that, within 4 months from the index case’s symptom onset, the expected outbreak size is unlikely to exceed 50 cases, with a high probability of epidemic extinction, particularly when > 50% cases are effectively isolated from the start of the outbreak.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.22.2600425
2026-06-04
2026-07-18
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.22.2600425
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Scenario analysis for potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV)
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Valentina+Marziano&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Marziano Valentina</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Alfredo+De+Bellis&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">De Bellis Alfredo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Martina+Del+Manso&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Del Manso Martina</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Antonino+Bella&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Bella Antonino</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Alberto++Mateo+Urdiales&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Mateo Urdiales Alberto </a>, <a href="/search?value1=Carla++Molina+Gran%C3%A9&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Molina Grané Carla </a>, <a href="/search?value1=Francesco+Menegale&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Menegale Francesco</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Lorenzo+Lucchini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Lucchini Lorenzo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Mattia+Manica&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Manica Mattia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Sobha+Pilati&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Pilati Sobha</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Daniele+Mipatrini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Mipatrini Daniele</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Flavia+Riccardo&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Riccardo Flavia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Giorgio+Guzzetta&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Guzzetta Giorgio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Piero+Poletti&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Poletti Piero</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Anna+Teresa+Palamara&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Palamara Anna Teresa</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Patrizio+Pezzotti&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Pezzotti Patrizio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Stefano+Merler&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Merler Stefano</a></span>. Scenario analysis for potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV). <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2026;31(22):pii=2600425. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.22.2600425" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.22.2600425</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 18 May 2026;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 04 Jun 2026 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.22.2600425
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.22.2600425
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