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The risk of global Ebola virus spread is low: epidemiology of Ebola disease cases outside Africa, 1976 to May 2026
- Kevin van Zandvoort1,* , Simon R Procter1,* , James M Azam1,* , Katharine Sherratt1,* , Nicholas G Davies1,2,3
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View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsAffiliations: 1 Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom 2 Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) Multi-Hazard Research Network, United Kingdom 3 UK Public Health Rapid Support Team, United Kingdom* These authors contributed equally to the work and share first authorship.Correspondence:Nicholas G Daviesnicholas.davies lshtm.ac.uk
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Citation style for this article: van Zandvoort Kevin, Procter Simon R, Azam James M, Sherratt Katharine, Davies Nicholas G. The risk of global Ebola virus spread is low: epidemiology of Ebola disease cases outside Africa, 1976 to May 2026. Euro Surveill. 2026;31(24):pii=2600508. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.24.2600508 Received: 09 Jun 2026; Accepted: 18 Jun 2026
Abstract
Following the Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May 2026, we reviewed all known Ebola disease cases outside Africa and found that intercontinental transmission risk remains low. We identified 28 confirmed epidemic-linked cases outside Africa; only four involved travellers with latent infection whose symptoms were detected after border screening. Excluding medically evacuated cases, the crude overall risk since 2000 was 0.17 Ebola disease cases outside Africa per 1,000 reported cases in Africa.
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