Table

Research priorities to guide the public health response to 2019-nCoV

Domain Priorities Study designs / data sources required
Transmission dynamics Provide robust estimates of the serial interval and generation time Detailed exposure and illness onset information from unselected case clusters in line lists, preferably from more than one epicentre
Estimate effective reproductive number () in other cities (i.e. ex-Wuhan) in China and elsewhere Epidemic curves for each city by dates of illness onset, preferably stratified by likely source of infection (zoonotic, environmental point source, local case vs imported index case)
Clarify the relative importance of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic transmission Detailed reports of transmission events and symptomatic status of infectors; viral shedding data; special studies in households and other closed settings
Determine the role of different age groups in transmission, particularly children Transmission studies in households and other closed settings; serological studies
Determine the relative importance of possible modes of transmission Outbreak investigations, in particular for superspreading events; environmental sampling, air sampling and exhaled breath sampling; special studies in households and other closed settings
Determine environmental effects on virus survival and transmission Virus survival studies in situ vivo and in vitro; environmental sampling studies
Severity Provide robust estimates of the risk of fatality of hospitalised cases, by age or other important groupings Reports from unselected clinical cohorts of times to death or recovery among resolved cases
Provide robust estimates of the risk of fatality of symptomatic cases, by age or other important groupings Estimates of incidence from population-wide surveillance of mild cases
Identify groups at high risk of severe infection Case–control studies; cohort studies
Susceptibility

Determine if children are infected, and if so, if they are infectious Transmission studies in households and other closed settings; serological studies
Determine if all infections result in neutralising immunity Convalescent serology from mild as well as severe cases, in all age groups
Control measures Provide impact estimates of travel restrictions, border screening and quarantine policies on non-local spread Modelling analyses of local and global spread of infections
Estimate the effects of social distancing measures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmissibility Comparative analyses of transmissibility in different locations
Predict the most effective measures to reduce the peak burden on healthcare providers and other societal functions Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes