1887
Rapid communications Open Access
Like 0

Abstract

We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/ese.14.41.19358-en
2009-10-15
2024-03-19
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/ese.14.41.19358-en
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/14/41/art19358-en.htm?itemId=/content/10.2807/ese.14.41.19358-en&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah
Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error