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Introduction
Influenza A or B viruses circulate every winter in the northern hemisphere,
approximately between the months of October and April. Though influenza
disease is usually self-limiting, it causes a considerable impact on
an individual’s daily life, affects the demand for health services
and can create economic loss. The burden of influenza falls particularly
on groups especially prone to complications or fatal outcome, such
as the very young [1], the elderly [2] or the chronically ill.
Assessing the annual level of morbidity due specifically
to influenza A or B viruses is however difficult, as the viruses lack
pathognomonic features and co-circulate with other respiratory pathogens
[3]. Consequently, many surveillance systems across Europe aim to identify
a level of illness possibly caused by influenza viruses, i.e., influenza-like
illness (ILI). A definitive set of symptoms for a clinical diagnosis
of influenza has been difficult to achieve, and the ILI definition varies
widely across Europe [4].
Reports of ILI are the basis of the influenza sentinel
surveillance system in Sweden, where participating physicians from specific
sites across the country report weekly number of ILI cases. No case definition
for influenza or ILI is used. Together with laboratory reporting of influenza
positive tests, the surveillance system allows a timely overview of the
level and duration of influenza circulating in a season. However, the
sentinel and laboratory surveillance systems depend on symptomatic individuals
presenting to a physician for consultation. They thus underestimate the
true burden of illness caused by influenza, since milder cases, clustered
family cases, or severely affected individuals living alone, may not
seek medical attention.
To understand the difference between measured (surveillance
system) and the true burden of influenza illness in the Swedish population,
we carried out a survey to estimate a point prevalence of self-reported
influenza in the national population during one week of the influenza
season. Secondary objectives included describing the symptoms experienced,
calculating the influenza vaccination uptake during part of the 2004/2005
influenza season, measuring medical consultation, estimating the severity
of illness as defined by absence from school or work, and time spent
in bed. The survey was planned and realised within a 3 week period, testing
a capacity to undertake real-time surveys of the national population
and providing useful experience for surveillance in an event of an epidemic
threat.
Methods
A cross-sectional retrospective survey was undertaken of a random sample
of the Swedish population. The sampling frame was a national register
of landline household telephone numbers (SPAR) with the random sample
being generated by the organisation holding the register. We contacted
households by telephone and following oral consent, interviewed responders
(aged 16 years and over) regarding each member of the household.
All questions regarding illness, symptoms and visits
for medical attention were asked concerning the week prior to interview:
Week 7, 14-20 February 2005. Data collected for each household member
included: age, gender, vaccination against influenza that season, having
influenza and any of the following: cough, fever, chills or muscle ache/pain.
For individuals reporting symptoms, questions were asked about whether
an individual had needed to stay in bed for a day or taken time off work
or school because of their symptoms. No definition of influenza was provided
to interviewees. To compare self-reported influenza status to a case
definition for ILI, a closest match to the European Union influenza case
definition [5] of ‘cough and fever and muscle pain’ was applied
to the sampled population according to symptoms reported.
During an annual influenza epidemic, between 5% and
15% of a population suffer an upper respiratory tract infection [6].
By doubling the weekly average of 1% in an assumed 10 week epidemic,
we required 1505 individuals (EPI6v.6.0.4). With a 95% CI, 4.2 million
people accessible by telephone(SPAR), a lower acceptable limit of 1%,
design effect of 2 and an average household size of 2.05 people [7],
we needed to interview 734 households. Accounting for a higher response
rate due to the national interest in influenza than experienced by recent
SMI (Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control) telephone interviews
[8], a list of 1500 telephone numbers was purchased.
Fifteen trained persons undertook the structured questionnaire
interviews over evenings of 22-25 February 2005. Answers were entered
directly onto computers using Epidata (v.3.02, Denmark). Three call attempts
were made per household over at least two different evenings. Data were
cleaned and proportions with confidence intervals calculated in EpiInfo
using complex sampling statistics to allow for the design effect (Epi
Info v.3.2.2).
Results
Of the 1334 households to whom telephone calls were made, contact was
established with 1070, and 872 agreed to participate in the survey.
This resulted in a response proportion of 81% and a sample of 2119
individuals. Age was unknown for 15 individuals. Table 1 compares the
sample and Swedish population by age group. The average household size
was 2.43 persons (range 1-8).

Influenza status
Of people who had an opinion about their influenza status, 160 people
of 2090 had influenza, giving a prevalence of 7.7% in Week 7 (95% CI
6.2-9.1, Design Effect= 1.7). Prevalence was highest in the lowest
age groups [TABLE 2].

Vaccination uptake
Among the 2096 individuals who knew their vaccination status, 11.6% (95%
CI 9.8-13.3) reported having been vaccinated. Seventy five per cent
(184/ 243) of those reporting vaccination were aged 65 years or over,
with a vaccination uptake among the 65+ age group of 55.1% (95% CI
49.0-61.2)
Symptoms and severity of illness
Table 3 shows the symptoms and severity of illness in individuals reporting
influenza versus those not reporting illness.

Applying a case definition for Influenza Like
Illness (ILI)
When a case definition was applied to data collected, the ILI prevalence
was 3.6% (74/2031, 95% CI 2.6-4.7, DE=1.7). Assuming ILI to be a true
measure of influenza burden in the population, 41% of self-reported influenza
cases had ILI (positive predictive value, 58/141). The sensitivity and
specificity of self-defined influenza as a measure of ILI were 87% (58/67)
and 96% (1858/1941) respectively [TABLE 4].

Survey logistics
The time taken to complete the protocol, questionnaire, database, telephone
number sourcing and recruitment of interviewers was approximately 125
working hours. The basic costs of the survey (telephone list, interviewers
and telephone calls) amounted to approximately 3250 €. To reach
the 1334 households, 2084 call attempts were made, approximating 14
calls per hour per person.
Discussion
This is the first survey undertaken in Sweden to estimate the national
burden of influenza during an influenza season. The telephone survey
yielded a good response, with 81% of people contacted agreeing to be
interviewed. The main survey finding was a point prevalence of 7.7%
self-defined influenza in the Swedish population in week 7 of 2005.
Due to the different denominator used in the sentinel surveillance
(number of consultations), the survey prevalence estimate cannot directly
be compared to the sentinel measure of 1.0% ILI activity in week 7
[FIGURE]. However, according to the surveillance system, Week 7 was
3-4 weeks prior to the peak of influenza activity of the 2004/2005
season.

There are limitations to the survey method that may
have underestimated the prevalence result. Firstly, a slight under-representation
of individuals aged 15-29 years, likely to be due to the high level of
mobile phone ownership and single households among this age group in
Sweden. Secondly, due to the time proximity of the recall period and
the survey, some households severely affected by influenza may have been
omitted from the survey if household members were unable to answer the
telephone.
The design effect of the prevalence measured was lower
than expected, suggesting that reported influenza was not highly clustered
by household. This could be an artefact due to the small size of households
in Sweden. Conversely, it may be that many households in Sweden were
concurrently affected by influenza, thus the ratio of between household
variance and total variance is small. Results indicate that the burden
of self-defined influenza was higher among younger age groups, consistent
with reports from the European influenza surveillance system for 2004/2005
[10]. A higher burden of influenza on children would support a widespread
distribution of influenza illness in the population.
The self-reported prevalence estimate of 7.7 % influenza
is likely to be an overestimate of the prevalence in Sweden in Week 7
of 2005. Reported symptoms show a relatively high prevalence of cough.
With fever status also being self-defined, it is likely that other circulating
respiratory infections were included as influenza. However, according
to laboratory surveillance, respiratory syncytial virus activity during
the 2004-05 season was relatively low [11] with 37 cases reported in
week 7 [www.smittskyddsinstitutet.se RSV reports 2004/05 season, Week
7]. Using the ILI case definition, the resulting prevalence was nearly
half that of self-reported influenza. Clinical or laboratory confirmation
of reported influenza would have allowed a comparison of these measures,
but was not possible in this survey.
An indication of the national uptake of influenza vaccination
in the 2004/2005 season was obtained. With the assumption that individuals
are vaccinated within the first few months of the season, the vaccination
uptake among the age group of those aged 65 years and over in Sweden
was 55.1%. This was similar to the 51% identified in 2003 [12], much
higher than the 30% identified within a representative sample of this
age group in one region of Sweden between 1998-2000 [13], but lower than
the national 62.7% vaccine coverage in the last season in the United
States [14].
Influenza is considered to cause a high burden on society
in terms of time, energy and economic impact [15]. This survey identified
that among those aged 5-64 years with self-reported influenza, 67% took
time off work or school. Furthermore, the high proportion of individuals
staying in bed for at least one day due to symptoms highlights the impact
on daily life from self-defined influenza morbidity. These results are
in line with the findings of a household survey undertaken in France
in 2000 that identified a substantial burden of illness due to influenza
[16].
This survey has provided useful insights into the burden
of Influenza and ILI in Sweden during a week of the 2004/05 influenza
season. It proved to be logistically feasible to be undertaken in a short
time and economically viable. With repetition inter and intra seasons,
this survey is a tentative step towards developing a comparative scale
between sentinel surveillance measures and the true burden of influenza
in the population. Such a development would provide a useful tool towards
monitoring and interpreting influenza activity in Sweden and throughout
Europe, supporting pandemic preparedness.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the members of the Swedish public who kindly gave
their time and input to this survey.
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