Incidence trends and short term predictions for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom

By the beginning of November 2001, the total number of cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) reported in the United Kingdom had reached 111 (www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/nov01.htm). To monitor the underlying trend in vCJD incidence and identify any differences in this trend by factors such as birth cohort and sex, quarterly analyses are performed which estimate the underlying trend.