Annual theme 2024: Urban development

The potential impact of urban structure, as population density and proximity to essential facilities, on spatial variability of infectious disease cases remains underexplored.

To analyse the spatial variation of COVID-19 case intensity in relation to population density and distance from urban facilities (as potential contagion hubs), by comparing Alpha and Omicron wave data representing periods of both enacted and lifted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Málaga.

Using spatial point pattern analysis, we examined COVID-19 cases in relation to population density, distance from hospitals, health centres, schools, markets, shopping malls, sports centres and nursing homes by non-parametric estimation of relative intensity dependence on these covariates. For statistical significance and effect size, we performed Berman Z1 tests and Areas Under Curves (AUC) for Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves.

After accounting for population density, relative intensity of COVID-19 remained consistent in relation to distance from urban facilities across waves. Although non-parametric estimations of the relative intensity of cases showed fluctuations with distance from facilities, Berman’s Z1 tests were significant for health centres only (p < 0.032) when compared with complete spatial randomness. The AUC of ROC curves for population density was above 0.75 and ca 0.6 for all urban facilities.

Results reflect the difficulty in assessing facilities’ effect in propagating infectious disease, particularly in compact cities. Lack of evidence directly linking higher case intensity to proximity to urban facilities shows the need to clarify the role of urban structure and planning in shaping the spatial distribution of epidemics within cities.

To be better prepared for emerging wildlife-borne zoonoses, we need to strengthen wildlife disease surveillance.

The aim of this study was to create a topical overview of zoonotic pathogens in wildlife species to identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improvement of wildlife disease surveillance.

We created a database, which is based on a systematic literature review in Embase focused on zoonotic pathogens in 10 common urban wildlife mammals in Europe, namely brown rats, house mice, wood mice, common voles, red squirrels, European rabbits, European hedgehogs, European moles, stone martens and red foxes. In total, we retrieved 6,305 unique articles of which 882 were included.

In total, 186 zoonotic pathogen species were described, including 90 bacteria, 42 helminths, 19 protozoa, 22 viruses and 15 fungi. Most of these pathogens were only studied in one single animal species. Even considering that some pathogens are relatively species-specific, many European countries have no (accessible) data on zoonotic pathogens in these relevant animal species. We used the Netherlands as an example to show how this database can be used by other countries to identify wildlife disease surveillance gaps on a national level. Only 4% of all potential host–pathogen combinations have been studied in the Netherlands.

This database comprises a comprehensive overview that can guide future research on wildlife-borne zoonotic diseases both on a European and national scale. Sharing and expanding this database provides a solid starting point for future European-wide collaborations to improve wildlife disease surveillance.