Zoonotic and arthropod-borne diseases

The Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system, jointly developed by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and various partners, is a web-based platform that facilitate the monitoring of information on public health threats in near real-time from thousands of online sources.

To assess the capacity of the EIOS system to strengthen data collection for neglected diseases of public health importance, and to evaluate the use of EIOS data for improving the understanding of the geographic extents of diseases and their level of risk.

A Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model was implemented to map the risk of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) occurrence in 52 countries and territories within the European Region between January 2012 and March 2022 using data on CCHF occurrence retrieved from the EIOS system.

The model found a positive association between all temperature-related variables and the probability of CCHF occurrence, with an increased risk in warmer and drier areas. The highest risk of CCHF was found in the Mediterranean basin and in areas bordering the Black Sea. There was a general decreasing risk trend from south to north across the entire European Region.

The study highlights that the information gathered by public health intelligence can be used to build a disease risk map. Internet-based sources could aid in the assessment of new or changing risks and planning effective actions in target areas.

Suriname, a country endemic for dengue virus (DENV), is a popular destination for Dutch travellers visiting friends and relatives and tourist travellers. Chikungunya and Zika virus (CHIKV, ZIKV) were introduced in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Data on infection risks among travellers are limited.

We aimed to prospectively study incidence rate (IR) and determinants for DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV infection in adult travellers to Suriname from 2014 through 2017.

Participants kept a travel diary and were tested for anti-DENV, anti-ZIKV and anti-CHIKV IgG antibodies (Euroimmun). Selected samples were subjected to an in-house DENV and ZIKV PRNT50. The IR (infections/1,000 person-months of travel) and IR ratio and determinants for infection were calculated.

Travel-acquired infections were found in 21 of 481 participants: 18 DENV, four ZIKV and two CHIKV, yielding an IRDENV of 47.0 (95% CI: 29.6–74.6), IRZIKV of 11.6 (95% CI: 4.4–31.0) and IRCHIKV of 5.6 (95% CI: 1.4–22.2)/1,000 person-months. In nine DENV and three ZIKV infected participants, infections were PRNT50-confirmed, yielding a lower IRDENV of 23.3 (95% CI: 12.1–44.8) and an IRZIKV of 8.4 (95% CI: 2.7–26.1) per 1,000 person-months. Tourist travel was associated with DENV infection. ZIKV and CHIKV infections occurred soon after their reported introductions.

Despite an overestimation of serologically confirmed infections, Dutch travellers to Suriname, especially tourists, are at substantial risk of DENV infection. As expected, the risk of contracting ZIKV and CHIKV was highest during outbreaks. Cross-reaction and potential cross-protection of anti-DENV and -ZIKV antibodies should be further explored.

Evidence of nationwide and regional morbidity of Lyme borreliosis (LB) in Germany is lacking.

We calculated the total number of incident LB cases in Germany in 2019, compared regional variations, investigated the extent of possible under-reporting in notification data and examined the association between high incidence areas and land cover composition.

We used outpatient claims data comprising information for people with statutory health insurance who visited a physician at least once between 2010 and 2019 in Germany (n = 71,411,504). The ICD-10 code A69.2 was used to identify incident LB patients. Spatial variations of LB were assessed by means of Global and Local Moran’s Index at district level. Notification data were obtained for nine federal states with mandatory notification from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

Of all insured, 128,177 were diagnosed with LB in 2019, corresponding to an incidence of 179 per 100,000 insured. The incidence varied across districts by a factor of 16 (range: 40–646 per 100,000). We identified four spatial clusters with high incidences. These clusters were associated with a significantly larger proportion of forests and agricultural areas than low incidence clusters. In 2019, 12,264 LB cases were reported to the RKI from nine federal states, while 69,623 patients with LB were found in claims data for those states. This difference varied considerably across districts.

These findings serve as a solid basis for regionally tailored population-based intervention programmes and can support modelling studies assessing the development of LB epidemiology under various climate change scenarios.

West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV), two closely related flaviviruses, mainly follow an enzootic cycle involving mosquitoes and birds, but also infect humans and other mammals. Since 2010, their epidemiological situation may have shifted from irregular epidemics to endemicity in several European regions; this requires confirmation, as it could have implications for risk assessment and surveillance strategies.

To explore the seroprevalence in animals and humans and potential endemicity of WNV and USUV in Southern France, given a long history of WNV outbreaks and the only severe human USUV case in France in this region.

We evaluated the prevalence of WNV and USUV in a repeated cross-sectional study by serological and molecular analyses of human, dog, horse, bird and mosquito samples in the Camargue area, including the city of Montpellier, between 2016 and 2020.

We observed the active transmission of both viruses and higher USUV prevalence in humans, dogs, birds and mosquitoes, while WNV prevalence was higher in horses. In 500 human samples, 15 were positive for USUV and 6 for WNV. Genetic data showed that the same lineages, WNV lineage 1a and USUV lineage Africa 3, were found in mosquitoes in 2015, 2018 and 2020.

These findings support existing literature suggesting endemisation in the study region and contribute to a better understanding of USUV and WNV circulation in Southern France. Our study underlines the importance of a One Health approach for the surveillance of these viruses.

West Nile virus (WNV) circulates in an enzootic cycle involving mosquitoes and birds; humans are accidental hosts.

We analysed human WNV infections reported between 2010 and 2018 to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to better understand WNV epidemiology.

We describe probable and confirmed autochthonous human cases of WNV infection reported by European Union (EU) and EU enlargement countries. Cases with unknown clinical manifestation or with unknown place of infection at NUTS 3 or GAUL 1 level were excluded from analysis.

From southern, eastern and western Europe, 3,849 WNV human infections and 379 deaths were reported. Most cases occurred between June and October. Two large outbreaks occurred, in 2010 (n = 391) and in 2018 (n = 1,993). The outbreak in 2018 was larger than in all previous years and the first cases were reported unusually early. The number of newly affected areas (n = 45) was higher in 2018 than in previous years suggesting wider spread of WNV.

Real-time surveillance of WNV infections is key to ensuring that clinicians and public health authorities receive early warning about the occurrence of cases and potential unusual seasonal patterns. Human cases may appear shortly after first detection of animal cases. Therefore, public health authorities should develop preparedness plans before the occurrence of human or animal WNV infections.

Climate is a major factor in the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), a pathogen increasingly pervasive worldwide. Cases increased during 2018 in Israel, the United States and Europe.

We set to retrospectively understand the spatial and temporal determinants of WNV transmission in Israel, as a case study for the possible effects of climate on virus spread.

We employed a suitability index to WNV, parameterising it with prior knowledge pertaining to a bird reservoir and Culex species, using local time series of temperature and humidity as inputs. The predicted suitability index was compared with confirmed WNV cases in Israel (2016–2018).

The suitability index was highly associated with WNV cases in Israel, with correlation coefficients of 0.91 (p value = 4 × 10^− 5), 0.68 (p = 0.016) and 0.9 (p = 2 × 10^− 4) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. The fluctuations in the number of WNV cases between the years were explained by higher area under the index curve. A new WNV seasonal mode was identified in the south-east of Israel, along the Great Rift Valley, characterised by two yearly peaks (spring and autumn), distinct from the already known single summer peak in the rest of Israel.

By producing a detailed geotemporal estimate of transmission potential and its determinants in Israel, our study promotes a better understanding of WNV epidemiology and has the potential to inform future public health responses. The proposed approach further provides opportunities for retrospective and prospective mechanistic modelling of WNV epidemiology and its associated climatic drivers.