Abstract

By the end of June 2002, a total of 124 cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) had been reported in the United Kingdom (http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/jul02.htm). In order to monitor the underlying trend in vCJD incidence, quarterly analyses that estimate the underlying trend are performed. The models fitted to the data enable short term predictions for the expected number of deaths in the next year, as well as an estimate of the total number of individuals with symptom onset who are yet to be identified.