Abstract

By the end of December 2002 the number of cases of confirmed or probable variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD) reported in the United Kingdom (UK) had reached a total of 129 (http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/jan03.htm). Quarterly analyses are performed that estimate the underlying trend in vCJD incidence. These enable short term predictions for the expected number of deaths in the next year as well as estimates of the total number of individuals with symptom onset yet to be identified (http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/vcjd.htm).