1887
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 0

Abstract

Based on 2015 abundance of in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
2016-04-14
2024-10-09
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/21/15/eurosurv-21-30199-2.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Zika virus vectors and risk of spread in the WHO European Region. Copenhagen: World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. [Accessed: 11 Apr 2016]. Available from: http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/304459/WEB-news_competence-of-Aedes-aegypti-and-albopictus-vector-species.pdf
  2. Metz M, Rocchini D, Neteler M. Surface temperatures at continental scale: tracking changes with remote sensing at unprecedented detail. Remote Sens. 2014;6(5):3822-40.  https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6053822 
  3. Barnard DR, Dickerson CZ, Murugan K, Xue RD, Kline DL, Bernier UR. Measurement of landing mosquito density on humans. Acta Trop. 2014;136:58-67.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2014.04.019  PMID: 24769003 
  4. Smith DL, Battle KE, Hay SI, Barker CM, Scott TW, McKenzie FE. Ross, Macdonald, and a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens. PLoS Pathog. 2012;8(4):e1002588.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1002588  PMID: 22496640 
  5. Lloyd AL, Zhang J, Root AM. Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models. J R Soc Interface. 2007;4(16):851-63.  https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1064  PMID: 17580290 
  6. Poletti P, Messeri G, Ajelli M, Vallorani R, Rizzo C, Merler S. Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy. PLoS One. 2011;6(5):e18860.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018860  PMID: 21559329 
  7. Chouin-Carneiro T, Vega-Rua A, Vazeille M, Yebakima A, Girod R, Goindin D, et al. Differential Susceptibilities of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus from the Americas to Zika Virus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10(3):e0004543.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004543  PMID: 26938868 
  8. Wong PS, Li MZ, Chong CS, Ng LC, Tan CH. Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse): a potential vector of Zika virus in Singapore. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013;7(8):e2348.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002348  PMID: 23936579 
  9. Cao-Lormeau VM, Blake A, Mons S, Lastère S, Roche C, Vanhomwegen J, et al. Guillain-Barré Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a case-control study. Lancet. 2016;S0140-6736(16)00562-6. PMID: 26948433 
  10. Brasil P, Pereira JP Jr, Raja Gabaglia C, Damasceno L, Wakimoto M, Ribeiro Nogueira RM, et al. Zika virus infection in pregnant women in Rio de Janeiro—preliminary report. N Engl J Med. 2016;NEJMoa1602412.  https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1602412  PMID: 26943629 
  11. Cauchemez S, Besnard M, Bompard P, Dub T, Guillemette-Artur P, Eyrolle-Guignot D, et al. Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013-15: a retrospective study. Lancet. 2016;S0140-6736(16)00651-6. PMID: 26993883 
  12. Bogoch II, Brady OJ, Kraemer MU, German M, Creatore MI, Kulkarni MA, et al. Anticipating the international spread of Zika virus from Brazil. Lancet. 2016;387(10016):335-6.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00080-5  PMID: 26777915 
  13. Kraemer MU, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQ, Shearer FM, Barker CM, et al. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. eLife. 2015;4:e08347.  https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347  PMID: 26126267 
  14. Grard G, Caron M, Mombo IM, Nkoghe D, Mboui Ondo S, Jiolle D, et al. Zika virus in Gabon (Central Africa)--2007: a new threat from Aedes albopictus? PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8(2):e2681.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002681  PMID: 24516683 
  15. Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA. Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 2007;11(5):1633-44.  https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007 
  16. Venturi G, Zammarchi L, Fortuna C, Remoli ME, Benedetti E, Fiorentini C, et al. An autochthonous case of Zika due to possible sexual transmission, Florence, Italy, 2014. Euro Surveill. 2016;21(8):30148.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.8.30148  PMID: 26939607 
  17. Mansuy JM, Dutertre M, Mengelle C, Fourcade C, Marchou B, Delobel P, et al. Zika virus: high infectious viral load in semen, a new sexually transmitted pathogen? Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;16(4):405.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00138-9  PMID: 26949027 
  18. Funk S, Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Eggo RM, Yakob L, Edmunds WJ. Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus. BioRxiv. 2016; Mar. 11 [Preprint].
  19. Mallet HP, Vial AL, Musso D. Bilan de l'épidémie à virus ZIKA en Polynésie Française 2013. [Balance of the Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia 2013]. Bulletin d'Information Sanitaires, Epidemiologiques et Statistiques. 2015;13. French. Available from: http://www.hygiene-publique.gov.pf/IMG/pdf/no13_-_mai_2015_-_zika.pdf
  20. Delatte H, Gimonneau G, Triboire A, Fontenille D. Influence of temperature on immature development, survival, longevity, fecundity, and gonotrophic cycles of Aedes albopictus, vector of chikungunya and dengue in the Indian Ocean. J Med Entomol. 2009;46(1):33-41.  https://doi.org/10.1603/033.046.0105  PMID: 19198515 
  21. Demografia in cifre. [Demography in figures]. Rome: Istat. [Accessed: 11 Apr 2016]. Italian. Available from: http://demo.istat.it/
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error