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Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium
- Marie-France Humblet1 , Sébastien Vandeputte1 , Fabienne Fecher-Bourgeois1 , Philippe Léonard2 , Christiane Gosset1 , Thomas Balenghien3,4 , Benoît Durand5 , Claude Saegerman1
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View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsAffiliations: 1 University of Liege, Liege, Belgium 2 University Hospital, Liege, Belgium 3 French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France 4 French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), Montpellier, France 5 University Paris Est, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety (ANSES), Maisons-Alfort, FranceClaude Saegermanclaude.saegerman ulg.ac.be
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Citation style for this article: Humblet Marie-France, Vandeputte Sébastien, Fecher-Bourgeois Fabienne, Léonard Philippe, Gosset Christiane, Balenghien Thomas, Durand Benoît, Saegerman Claude. Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium . Euro Surveill. 2016;21(31):pii=30309. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.31.30309 Received: 13 Jun 2015; Accepted: 02 Jan 2016
Abstract
This study aimed at estimating, in a prospective scenario, the potential economic impact of a possible epidemic of WNV infection in Belgium, based on 2012 values for the equine and human health sectors, in order to increase preparedness and help decision-makers. Modelling of risk areas, based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the main vector of the virus, allowed us to determine equine and human populations at risk. Characteristics of the different clinical forms of the disease based on past epidemics in Europe allowed morbidity among horses and humans to be estimated. The main costs for the equine sector were vaccination and replacement value of dead or euthanised horses. The choice of the vaccination strategy would have important consequences in terms of cost. Vaccination of the country’s whole population of horses, based on a worst-case scenario, would cost more than EUR 30 million; for areas at risk, the cost would be around EUR 16–17 million. Regarding the impact on human health, short-term costs and socio-economic losses were estimated for patients who developed the neuroinvasive form of the disease, as no vaccine is available yet for humans. Hospital charges of around EUR 3,600 for a case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease and EUR 4,500 for a case of acute flaccid paralysis would be the major financial consequence of an epidemic of West Nile virus infection in humans in Belgium.
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