1887
  1. Home
  2. Eurosurveillance
  3. Volume 25, Issue 12, 26/Mar/2020
  4. Article
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 0
Download

Abstract

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

© Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
2020-03-26
2024-10-09
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/25/12/eurosurv-25-12-1.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Cereda D, Tirani M, Rovida F, Demicheli V, Ajelli M, Poletti P, et al. The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy. 23 Mar 2020.Available from: https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.09320
  2. Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Popolazione residente per età, sesso e stato civile al 1° Gennaio 2019. Rome: ISTAT. [Accessed 1 Mar 2020]. Available from: http://demo.istat.it/pop2019/index.html
  3. Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008;5(3):e74.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074  PMID: 18366252 
  4. Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, et al. Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study. medRxiv 2020.02.21.20026328.  https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026328 
  5. Cauchemez S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron AJ, Boëlle PY. A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med. 2004;23(22):3469-87.  https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.1912  PMID: 15505892 
  6. Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Kinoshita R, et al. The rate of under ascertainment of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Estimation using Japanese passengers data on evacuation flights. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):E419.  https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419 
  7. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;NEJMoa2001316.  https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316  PMID: 31995857 
  8. Wu Z, McGoogan JM. Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in china: summary of a report of 72 314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. 2020. [Epub ahead of print]  https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2648  PMID: 32091533 
  9. Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, Ye C, Zou X, Zhang Z, et al. Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. medRxiv 2020.03.03.20028423;  https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423 
Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Giorgio+Guzzetta&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Guzzetta Giorgio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Piero+Poletti&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Poletti Piero</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Marco+Ajelli&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Ajelli Marco</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Filippo+Trentini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Trentini Filippo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Valentina+Marziano&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Marziano Valentina</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Danilo+Cereda&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Cereda Danilo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Marcello+Tirani&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Tirani Marcello</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Giulio+Diurno&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Diurno Giulio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Annalisa+Bodina&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Bodina Annalisa</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Antonio+Barone&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Barone Antonio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Lucia+Crottogini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Crottogini Lucia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Maria+Gramegna&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Gramegna Maria</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Alessia+Melegaro&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Melegaro Alessia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Stefano+Merler&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Merler Stefano</a></span>. Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(12):pii=2000293. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 12 Mar 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 25 Mar 2020 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error