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Abstract

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of clinical pneumonia among infants and young children, often peaking during the winter months in temperate regions.

Aim

To describe RSV seasonality in 13 European countries and examine its association with meteorological factors.

Methods

We included weekly RSV seasonality data from 13 European countries between week 40 2010 and week 39 2019. Using local weighted regression method, we modelled weekly RSV activity with meteorological factors using data from the 2010/11 to the 2017/18 season. We predicted the weekly RSV activity of the 2018/19 season across 41 European countries and validated our prediction using empirical data.

Results

All countries had annual wintertime RSV seasons with a longitudinal gradient in RSV onset (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.80). The RSV season started 3.8 weeks later (95% CI: −0.5 to 8.0) in countries in the eastern vs western parts of Europe, and the duration ranged from 8–18 weeks across seasons and countries. Lower temperature and higher relative humidity were associated with higher RSV activity, with a 14-day lag time. Through external validation, the prediction error in RSV season onset was −2.4 ± 3.2 weeks. Similar longitudinal gradients in RSV onset were predicted by our model for the 2018/19 season (r = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.16 to 0.66).

Conclusion

Meteorological factors, such as temperature and relative humidity, could be used for early warning of RSV season onset. Our findings may inform healthcare services planning and optimisation of RSV immunisation strategies in Europe.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619
2022-04-21
2024-04-20
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619
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Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its association with meteorological factors in 13 European countries, week 40 2010 to week 39 2019
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=You+Li&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Li You</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Xin+Wang&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Wang Xin</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Eeva+K+Broberg&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Broberg Eeva K</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Harry+Campbell&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Campbell Harry</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Harish+Nair&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Nair Harish</a>, <a href="/search?value1=European+RSV+Surveillance+Network&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">European RSV Surveillance Network</a></span>. Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its association with meteorological factors in 13 European countries, week 40 2010 to week 39 2019. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2022;27(16):pii=2100619. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 08 Jun 2021;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 08 Dec 2021 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619
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