1887
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 0

Abstract

With COVID-19 public health control measures downgraded in China in January 2023, reported COVID-19 case numbers may underestimate the true numbers after the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave. Using a multiplier model based on our influenza surveillance system, we estimated that the overall incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 392/100,000 population in Beijing during the 5 weeks following policy adjustment. No notable change occurred after the Spring Festival in early February. The multiplier model provides an opportunity for assessing the actual COVID-19 situation.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.11.2300128
2023-03-16
2024-04-18
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.11.2300128
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/28/11/eurosurv-28-11-2.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.11.2300128&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC). Epidemic situation of novel coronavirus infection in China. Beijing: Chinese CDC. [Accessed: 3 Feb 2023]. Chinese. Available from: https://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/szkb_11803/jszl_13141/202302/t20230201_263576.html
  2. Pan Y, Wang L, Feng Z, Xu H, Li F, Shen Y, et al. Characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Beijing during 2022: an epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis. Lancet. 2023;401(10377):664-72.
  3. Velavan TP, Ntoumi F, Kremsner PG, Lee SS, Meyer CG. Emergence and geographic dominance of Omicron subvariants XBB/XBB.1.5 and BF.7 - the public health challenges. Int J Infect Dis. 2023;128:307-9.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.01.024  PMID: 36681145 
  4. Novazzi F, Giombini E, Rueca M, Baj A, Fabeni L, Genoni A, et al. Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 positive passengers on flights from China to Italy, December 2022. Euro Surveill. 2023;28(2):2300008.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.2.2300008  PMID: 36695479 
  5. National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Notification regarding the print and distribution of the protocol of managing SARS-CoV-2 infection as category B infectious diseases. The Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of The State Council for novel coronavirus infection. Beijing: National Health Commission. [Accessed: 1 Feb 2023]. Chinese. Available from: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202212/e97e4c449d7a475794624b8ea12123c6.shtml
  6. Yang P, Duan W, Lv M, Shi W, Peng X, Wang X, et al. Review of an influenza surveillance system, Beijing, People’s Republic of China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(10):1603-8.  https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1510.081040  PMID: 19861053 
  7. Haixu L, Haibin W, Lili R. Detection of 20 respiratory viruses and bacteria by influenza-like illness surveillance in Beijing, China, 2016-2018. J Infect. 2020;80(3):350-71.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2019.11.014  PMID: 31778686 
  8. Xu C, Havers F, Wang L, Chen T, Shi J, Wang D, et al. Monitoring avian influenza A(H7N9) virus through national influenza-like illness surveillance, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2013;19(8):1289-92.  https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1907.130662  PMID: 23879887 
  9. Reed C, Angulo FJ, Swerdlow DL, Lipsitch M, Meltzer MI, Jernigan D, et al. Estimates of the prevalence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, United States, April-July 2009. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(12):2004-7.  https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1512.091413  PMID: 19961687 
  10. Wang X, Yang P, Seale H, Zhang Y, Deng Y, Pang X, et al. Estimates of the true number of cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Beijing, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16(11):1786-8.  https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1611.100323  PMID: 21029546 
  11. Wu S, VAN Asten L, Wang L, McDonald SA, Pan Y, Duan W, et al. Estimated incidence and number of outpatient visits for seasonal influenza in 2015-2016 in Beijing, China. Epidemiol Infect. 2017;145(16):3334-44.  https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268817002369  PMID: 29117874 
  12. Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing. Beijing population census yearbook 2020. Beijing: National Bureau of Statistics. [Accessed: 31 Jan 2023]. Chinese. Available from: https://nj.tjj.beijing.gov.cn/tjnj/rkpc-2020/indexch.htm
  13. Moore SA, Faulkner G, Rhodes RE, Brussoni M, Chulak-Bozzer T, Ferguson LJ, et al. Impact of the COVID-19 virus outbreak on movement and play behaviours of Canadian children and youth: a national survey. Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act. 2020;17(1):85.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12966-020-00987-8  PMID: 32631350 
  14. Yoon Y, Kim KR, Park H, Kim S, Kim YJ. Stepwise school opening and an impact on the epidemiology of COVID-19 in the children. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35(46):e414.  https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e414  PMID: 33258334 
  15. Leung K, Lau EHY, Wong CKH, Leung GM, Wu JT. Estimating the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BF.7 in Beijing after adjustment of the zero-COVID policy in November-December 2022. Nat Med. 2023; Epub ahead of print.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02212-y  PMID: 36638825 
  16. Reese H, Iuliano AD, Patel NN, Garg S, Kim L, Silk BJ, et al. Estimated incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness and hospitalization-United States, February-September 2020. Clin Infect Dis. 2021;72(12):e1010-7.  https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780  PMID: 33237993 
  17. Steele MK, Couture A, Reed C, Iuliano D, Whitaker M, Fast H, et al. Estimated number of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths prevented among vaccinated persons in the US, December 2020 to September 2021. JAMA Netw Open. 2022;5(7):e2220385.  https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.20385  PMID: 35793085 
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.11.2300128
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error