Abstract

Concerns about an imminent influenza pandemic have been intensified after the emergence of the new influenza A(H1N1)v strain. Mathematical modeling was employed on recent epidemiological data from Mexico in order to assess the impact of intervention strategies on the spread of influenza A(H1N1)v in the setting of the European region. When initiating the intervention of 100% school closure in a community of 2,000 people at a threshold of 1% cumulative attack rate, the total number of symptomatic cases is predicted to decrease by 89.3%, as compared to the non-intervention scenario. When this measure is coupled with treatment and home isolation of symptomatic cases as well as a 50% reduction of social contacts, a 94.8% decline in the cumulative attack rate is predicted along with a much shorter duration of influenza A(H1N1)v transmission. Active surveillance that will ensure timely treatment and home isolation of symptomatic cases in combination with school closure seem to form an efficient strategy to control the spread of influenza A(H1N1)v.