Rapid communications Open Access
Like 0


We use a time dependent modification of the Kermack and McKendrick model to study the evolution of the influenza A(H1N1)v epidemic reported in the Mexico City area under the control measures used during April and May 2009. The model illustrates how the sanitary measures postponed the peak of the epidemic and decreased its intensity. It provides quantitative predictions on the effect of relaxing the sanitary measures after a period of control. We show how the sanitary measures reduced the maximal prevalence of the infected population from 10% to less than 6% of the total population. We also show how the model predicts the time of maximal prevalence and explains the effect of the control measures.


Article metrics loading...

Loading full text...

Full text loading...

Submit comment
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error