1887
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 0

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.11.2100256
2021-03-18
2021-04-12
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.11.2100256
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/26/11/eurosurv-26-11-2.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.11.2100256&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Davies NG, Abbott S, Barnard RC, Jarvis CI, Kucharski AJ, Munday JD, et al. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science. 2021;eabg3055.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055  PMID: 33658326 
  2. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). SARS-CoV-2 - increased circulation of variants of concern and vaccine rollout in the EU/EEA,14th update. Stockholm: ECDC; 2021. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-covid-19-14th-update-15-feb-2021.pdf
  3. Public Health England (PHE). Investigation of novel SARS-CoV-2 variant. Variant of concern 20201/01. London: PHE. [Accessed: 25 Feb 2021]. Available from: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959438/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf
  4. Cox DR. Regression models and life‐tables. J R Stat Soc B. 1972;34(2):187-202.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x 
  5. Cox DR, Oakes D. Analysis of survival data. London: CRC press; 1984. ISBN 9780412244902.
  6. Ministry of Housing, Communities Local Government. The English indices of deprivation 2019 (IoD2019). London: Ministry of Housing, Communities Local Government; 2019. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019
  7. NERVTAG. NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7: Paper from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) on new coronavirus (COVID-19) variant B.1.1.7. London: Department of Health and Social Care; 2021. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117
  8. Iacobucci G. Covid-19: New UK variant may be linked to increased death rate, early data indicate. BMJ. 2021;372(230):n230.  https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n230  PMID: 33500262 
  9. Davies NG, Jarvis CI, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Edmunds WJ, Jewell NP, Diaz-Ordaz K, Keogh RH, et al. Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7. Nature. 2021.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03426-1  PMID: 33723411 
  10. Challen R, Brooks-Pollock E, Read JM, Dyson L, Tsaneva-Atanasova K, Danon L. Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1: matched cohort study. BMJ. 2021;372(579):n579.  https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n579  PMID: 33687922 
  11. Walker JL, Grint DJ, Strongman H, Eggo RM, Peppa M, Minassian C, et al. UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):484.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10427-2  PMID: 33706738 
  12. Department of Health and Social Care. New UK-wide methodology agreed to record COVID-19 deaths. London: Department of Health and Social Care; 2020. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-wide-methodology-agreed-to-record-covid-19-deaths
  13. Public Health England (PHE). PHE monitoring of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination. London: PHE; 2021. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.11.2100256
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Supplementary data

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error