1887
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 0

Abstract

Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272
2021-04-15
2021-08-06
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/26/15/eurosurv-26-15-1.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Davies NG, Abbott S, Barnard RC, Jarvis CI, Kucharski AJ, Munday JD, et al. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science. 2021;372(6538):eabg3055.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055  PMID: 33658326 
  2. Volz E, Mishra S, Chand M, Barrett JC, Johnson R, Geidelberg L, et al. Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Nature. 2021.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x  PMID: 33767447 
  3. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Risk Assessment: Risk related to spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the EU/EEA. Stockholm: ECDC; 2020. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-risk-assessment-spread-new-sars-cov-2-variants-eueea
  4. Gaymard A, Bosetti P, Feri A, Destras G, Enouf V, Andronico A, et al. Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021. Euro Surveill. 2021;26(9):2100133.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.9.2100133  PMID: 33663644 
  5. Sabbatini CE, Di Domenico L, Pullano G, Colizza V. Estimated date of dominance of VOC-202012/01 strain in France and projected scenarios. Paris: EPIcx lab; 2021. Available from: https://www.epicx-lab.com/uploads/9/6/9/4/9694133/inserm_covid-19-voc_dominance-20210116.pdf
  6. Haim-Boukobza S, Roquebert B, Trombert-Paolantoni S, Lecorche E, Verdurme L, Foulongne V, Selinger C, et al. Rapid SARS-CoV-2 variants spread detected in France using specific RT-PCR testing. medRxiv 2021.02.20.21251927.  https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.20.21251927 
  7. Reichmuth M, Hodcroft E, Riou J, Althous CL, Althaus CL, Schibler M, Eckerle I, et al. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Switzerland. Github; 2021. Available from: https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants
  8. Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Perra N, et al. Estimating the spreading and dominance of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) across Europe. medRxiv. 2021.02.22.21252235 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.22.21252235
  9. Pullano G, Di Domenico L, Sabbatini CE, Valdano E, Turbelin C, Debin M, et al. Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control. Nature. 2021;590(7844):134-9.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03095-6  PMID: 33348340 
  10. Di Domenico L, Pullano G, Sabbatini CE, Boëlle P-Y, Colizza V. Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies. BMC Med. 2020;18(1):240.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01698-4  PMID: 32727547 
  11. Di Domenico L, Pullano G, Sabbatini CE, Boëlle P-Y, Colizza V. Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France. Nat Commun. 2021;12(1):1073.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21249-6  PMID: 33594076 
  12. data.gouv.fr, Plateforme ouverte des données publiques françaises. Données relatives aux personnes vaccinées contre la Covid-19 (VAC-SI). [Data on people vaccinated against Covid-19]. Paris: Gouvernement français; 2021. French. Available from: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-relatives-aux-personnes-vaccinees-contre-la-covid-19-1
  13. Gouvernement français. Discours de Jean Castex : conférence de presse sur les mesures contre la Covid-19. [Speech by Jean Castex: press conference on measures against Covid-19]. Paris: Gouvernement français; 2021. French. Available from: https://www.gouvernement.fr/partage/12148-discours-de-jean-castex-conference-de-presse-sur-les-mesures-contre-la-covid-19
  14. Sante publique France. COVID-19 : point épidémiologique du 11 mars 2021. [COVID-19: epidemiological update of 11 March 2021]. Saint-Maurice: Sante publique France; 2021. French. Available from: https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/documents/bulletin-national/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-du-11-mars-2021
  15. Sante publique France. COVID-19 : point épidémiologique en Ile-de-France du 1er avril 2021. [COVID-19: epidemiological update in Ile-de-France of 1 April 2021]. Saint-Maurice: Sante publique France; 2021. French. Available from: https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/regions/ile-de-france/documents/bulletin-regional/2021/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-en-ile-de-france-du-1er-avril-2021
  16. Spaccaferri G, Larrieu S, Pouey J, Calba C, Benet T, Sommen C, et al. Early assessment of the impact of mitigation measures to control COVID-19 in 22 French metropolitan areas, October to November 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(50):2001974.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.50.2001974  PMID: 33334399 
  17. Google. COVID-19 community mobility report. Mountain View: Google. [Accessed: 31 Jan 2021]. Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility?hl=en
  18. Bager P, Wohlfahrt J, Fonager J, Albertsen M, Yssing Michaelsen T, et al. Increased risk of hospitalisation associated with infection with SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in Denmark. Indore: Social Science Research Network; 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792894
  19. Faria NR, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, Claro IM, Candido DDS, Mishra S, et al. Genomics and epidemiology of a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil. GitHub; 2021. Available from: https://github.com/CADDE-CENTRE/Novel-SARS-CoV-2-P1-Lineage-in-Brazil
  20. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Integrated COVID-19 response in the vaccination era. Stockholm: ECDC; 2021. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/integrated-covid-19-response-vaccination-era
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Supplementary data

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error