NEW: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Healthcare workers (n = 803) with mild symptoms were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n = 90 positive) and asked to complete a symptom questionnaire. Anosmia, muscle ache, ocular pain, general malaise, headache, extreme tiredness and fever were associated with positivity. A predictive model based on these symptoms showed moderate discriminative value (sensitivity: 91.2%; specificity: 55.6%). While our models would not justify presumptive SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis without molecular confirmation, it can contribute to targeted screening strategies.

Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case–age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions.

Healthcare workers (HCW) are potentially at increased risk of infection with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and may transmit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to vulnerable patients. We present results from staff testing at Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom. Between 16 and 29 March 2020, 1,533 symptomatic HCW were tested, of whom 282 (18%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Testing HCW is a crucial strategy to optimise staffing levels during this outbreak.

Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.

Understanding risk perceptions of the public is critical for risk communication. In February 2020, the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare started collecting weekly qualitative data on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk perception that informs risk communication efforts. The process is based on thematic analysis of emails and social media messages from the public and identifies factors linked to appraisal of risk magnitude, which are developed into risk communication recommendations together with health and communication experts.

In response to the outbreak of COVID-19, we set up a team to carry out sampling in the community. This enabled individuals to remain in self-isolation in their own homes and to prevent healthcare settings and services from being overwhelmed by admissions for sampling of suspected cases. There is evidence that this is a cost effective, safe and necessary service to complement COVID-19 testing in hospitals.

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.