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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
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Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
More LessWe evaluated effectiveness of thermal passenger screening for 2019-nCoV infection at airport exit and entry to inform public health decision-making. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46% (95% confidence interval: 36 to 58) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and proportion of asymptomatic cases. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travellers.
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Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20–28 January 2020
More LessA novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6–7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.
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Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020
More LessAs at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.
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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
More LessSince December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.
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Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR
More LessVictor M Corman, Olfert Landt, Marco Kaiser, Richard Molenkamp, Adam Meijer, Daniel KW Chu, Tobias Bleicker, Sebastian Brünink, Julia Schneider, Marie Luisa Schmidt, Daphne GJC Mulders, Bart L Haagmans, Bas van der Veer, Sharon van den Brink, Lisa Wijsman, Gabriel Goderski, Jean-Louis Romette, Joanna Ellis, Maria Zambon, Malik Peiris, Herman Goossens, Chantal Reusken, Marion PG Koopmans and Christian DrostenBackgroundThe ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for public health laboratories as virus isolates are unavailable while there is growing evidence that the outbreak is more widespread than initially thought, and international spread through travellers does already occur.
AimWe aimed to develop and deploy robust diagnostic methodology for use in public health laboratory settings without having virus material available.
MethodsHere we present a validated diagnostic workflow for 2019-nCoV, its design relying on close genetic relatedness of 2019-nCoV with SARS coronavirus, making use of synthetic nucleic acid technology.
ResultsThe workflow reliably detects 2019-nCoV, and further discriminates 2019-nCoV from SARS-CoV. Through coordination between academic and public laboratories, we confirmed assay exclusivity based on 297 original clinical specimens containing a full spectrum of human respiratory viruses. Control material is made available through European Virus Archive – Global (EVAg), a European Union infrastructure project.
ConclusionThe present study demonstrates the enormous response capacity achieved through coordination of academic and public laboratories in national and European research networks.
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Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020
More LessA novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9–32%).
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